Tier 5
Floor - high level rotation player
Bullseye - Productive starter
Ceiling - borderline all star
OFFENSE
Pass - Grade: 85
Notes: Playmaking is probably Johnson's best offensive attribute. Johnson has great court awareness, particularly in transition or when posted up. Johnson is great at finding open shooters when he slashes, and is a pretty accurate passer. He is an on-ball creator on offense, and is good at hitting cutters. While he has good court awareness, he is often not under control and has trouble adjusting when his initial read is cut off. This makes Johnson pretty turnover prone, and his AST/TO was negative. However, his teammates at Duke missed a ton of open shots and his passing is more fit for the NBA than college.
Dribble - Grade: 85
Notes: Johnson has a great handle for a 6'9 power forward, particularly in the open court. Johnson is great at changing speeds, taking long strides, and maximizing his dribble. He has serious potential to be a PnR ball-handler as he can see over the defense and has the handle to maneuver in the PnR well, just needs to work on poise and jumper. Doesn't have a deep bag of moves, and little to know counters, but is comfortable with the ball in his hands and can still get to his spots off the dribble. Plenty of room for improvement in this area, but he projects to be a very good ball handler for his position.
3pt shooting - Grade: 72
Notes: Johnson shot 44% from three this season, but that number is quite misleading. Johnson only attempted 18 threes this season at Duke. His form is slow and stiff, and he doesn't look comfortable taking threes. He shot well off the catch which offers a little bit of hope, but him shooting just 63% from the free throw line is not a good sign. He has potential to get to league average from catch and shoot, but it's going to take sometime. This is an area of Johnson's game that he needs to prioritize more than anything else.
Mid-range shooting - Grade: 70
Notes: Johnson rarely took mid-range jumpers, and when he did they were more so floaters than jumpers. I would like to see Johnson add a bit of mid-range game, as it could be unstoppable when he's a PnR ball-handler. He has pretty good touch even though his form is not great, and I think there's potential for him to add a bit of a middy to his game but it is not something I would count on.
Finishing - Grade: 84
Notes: Johnson is a very good driver and finisher in transition, and just ok in the half-court. Johnson has an amazing ability to elevate and throw down highlight dunks, but when this isn't an option he more often than not shies away from contact. He embraces contact when being defended by a smaller player, but avoids when meeting a big at the rim. With that being said, Johnson is still a very good finisher. Shows good touch, elevation, and creativity on his finishes. Pretty good conversion rate for someone who has a pretty high degree of difficulty on his finishes. Johnson will probably be more effective as a driver in the half-court as a pro, due to the spacing and pace. I wouldn't be surprised used Johnson some as a on-ball screener and short roller in some capacity as well. Johnson needs to be work on being able to embrace contact for all player sizes, and his FTr.
Off-ball playmaking - Grade: 79
Notes: Johnson has show plenty of flashes of how he can be effective as an off-ball playmaker, but he has a tendency to lose interest in plays when an action is not directly involving him. Johnson will also post-up at odd and unfavorable times, clogging the lane when he should be relocating. He is a good cutter when he actually cuts, and there's no reason why he couldn't be a high level screener. This is more of an engagement issue than an ability issue. Johnson is a pretty athletic and active offensive rebounder, who has a knack for above the rim putbacks.
Offensive Summary: 82
Johnson's offensive game has a very wide range of outcomes, with a very high ceiling. If Johnson get league average at C&S threes, adapts a little bit of jump shot creation of the dribble, and poise as a half-court playmaker and PnR ball-handler, he could be a pretty elite offensive player. That is much easier said than done, and it is unlikely he gets to that level in all of those categories. Johnson's quick first step, playmaking ability, and knack for getting to the rim in transition will make him at least an OK offensive player in the league, with a ton of potential and room to go. Johnson's a very dynamic player already, and will show flashes immediately. The questions with him are with his shooting, character, and consistency. I am not too worried about the high turnover rate. Johnson needs to learn how to be effective off-ball right away, as I'm not sure he will have the ball in his hands as much as he did in college.
Defense
Engagement - Grade: 79
Notes: Johnson's defensive engagement was very inconsistent. He will get caught ball-watching often, and will visibly not put in full effort on a closeout or rotation at times. This type of behavior, while not constant or representative of who he is as a defender, is alarming. Johnson would look very locked in at the defensive end at times as well, so consistency is the issue with this, not that he can't get to a high level of engagement.
Containment - Grade: 84
Notes: Johnson is a pretty good POA defender, and is a good one for a 6'9 guy. He can have poor timing on closeouts which compromises his defensive positioning, and his technique is often not great. He will not be low enough in his stance, and will be tight-hipped at times. He has shown ability to get low and cover guards in the matchups that he covets, so again, it's an issue of consistency rather than ability for the most part. Johnson does have very good lateral quickness for his size, and has the speed to beat a lot of guards to the spot. Johnson also has great core strength, which is pivotal in being a high level POA defender. There is certainly potential for Johnson to be an elite wing defender in the league, and he projects to be at least a good one.
Team Defense - Grade: 90
Notes: When engaged, Johnson is a very high level secondary and off-ball defender. Elite level rotations, particularly when playing help at the rim, and picture perfect closeouts when he gets the timing right. He can be lethal in the passing lanes, covering a ton of ground and making the offensive player guess. He is very good at straddling the lane line when in the gap, and can pounce from one spot to the next. He is extremely mobile and very long. As with the rest of his defensive game the two areas of most importance are engagement and consistency.
Rim Protection - Grade: 94
Notes: Johnson is a very high level help defender and shot contester. He regularly blocks and alters shots at the rim, and has good instincts. He can be baited into pump fakes with regularity, but he's got a crazy quick second jump. Johnson is pretty good at not getting baited into fouls, and had a low foul rate for someone who contests and reaches as much as he does. His ability to rotate and help makes him a high level defender, and separates him for the other versatile wings behind him.
Playmaking - Grade: 95
Notes: Johnson has an absurd stock rate, and a high deflection rate. His steal rate for a 6'9 guy is truly ridiculous, he's got great hands and length to pluck guys off the dribble and to get a hand into passing lanes. When he's active, he's going to get a hand on the ball at a crazy high rate. This aspect of his game is one that is very rare, and is a little bit of the likes of Robert Covington in how he rotates at the rim and plays the passing lanes, Kyle Anderson in terms of timing of his reaches on penetrators, and Mikal Bridges in how he covers so much ground (not as long though). Now he is obviously not at the level of any of those guys, but has shown serious flashes and ability to get there.
Versatility - Grade: 95
Notes: Johnson should be able to switch 2-4 right away, and maybe one day 1-5. He is already very strong and can guard bigs, and has quick feet to stay in front of guards. But he needs to improve his technique and gain consistency to be able to do this, and not take plays off. He's got the tools to become and extremely versatile defender on and off the ball, and this is why he can't be ignored as an extremely high-level prospect.
Defensive Rebounding - Grade: 85
Notes: Johnson should rebound at a higher rate than he does, but when he does crash he is a good rebounder. He has a solid motor when engaged, and has the strength, elevation, and length to be a good rebounder. Johnson loves to push the ball and run the break after getting a defensive rebounder.
Defensive Summary: 89
Notes: I know I've already said this about a few other guys in this draft, but Johnson has a legitimate all-defensive team potential. Unlike the others though, despite having all the tools, Johnson is going to have to work harder than them to get there because a lot of stuff does not come naturally to him that is required to be an elite defender. He is a natural at contesting shots around the rim, but can often look clueless on the perimeter despite having high level abilities. His awareness and engagement goes in and out, and he's not a high IQ and high motor (consistently) defender like the guys ranked ahead of him. The possibility of him being able to switch 1-5 is very real, and he has a very serious chance to be a truly elite off-ball defender. His floor as a defender is a guy who can provide length and athleticism with solid playmaking, but inconsistency and lapses with irregular on-ball technique and production. Truthfully, a lot of it's in Johnson's control and he's going to need a very good coaching staff that can motivate and guide him.
Measurables: 95
19
6'8
210
6'11 wingspan
Functional Athleticism: 95
Very good vertical leap
Great open court speed, especially with the ball
Good lateral quickness with long lateral strides
Already pretty strong, particularly in the core
General Thoughts:
Jalen Johnson is another big wing with slashing and ball handling abilities with major upside on the defensive side of the floor, but has a lot of question marks following his exit from Duke midway through their season. Johnson is a lottery talent based off of talent alone, but there are other off court concerns which make Johnson difficult to evaluate. He also left IMG halfway through his senior season, so that's 2 years in a row he has not been able to make it through a full season (not injury related). These concerns are not mine to investigate and I'm not going to speculate on anything, but if he drops in the draft this could be the reason why. He is certainly talented enough to be a consensus top 10 guy.
